It's too early for the overall market of the hotte

2022-08-01
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It is too early to say the overall market of chemical industry Pu sector has attracted much attention

the price of chemical fiber continues to rise

the chemical fiber industry recovered well in 2009, and the performance of relevant sectors increased rapidly. Since the beginning of this year, although there has been differentiation in different sub sectors, the overall industry is still in a high prosperity state, thus providing market opportunities for Bayer materials technology, a listed company related to chemical fiber, which is subordinate to Bayer Group Company

we believe that the product price is a barometer of the prosperity of the industry. From this year's product prices, chemical fiber continued the upward trend of last year. According to wind information statistics, the current viscose staple fiber is 20200 yuan/ton, compared with 18850 yuan/9 at the beginning of this year. Curve selection: stress-strain, stress time, strength time and other curves can be selected according to needs for display and printing; Tons increased by 7.16%, while the increase from the beginning of last year to the end of last year reached 63%; At present, the polyester staple fiber is 10280 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.08% compared with 9600 yuan/ton at the beginning of this year, and an increase of 41.79% last year. Others such as polyester and acrylic fiber also rose significantly. In terms of product output, chemical fiber products in 2009 increased by 14.31% compared with 2008, while the first two months of this year increased by 17.11% year-on-year

according to the observation, the changes in the price and output of chemical fiber products are also reflected in the performance of relevant listed companies. Taking Shenwan secondary industry as an example, in the first three quarters of 2009, the net profit of chemical fiber sector increased by more than three times year-on-year, of which the net profit of polyester sector increased by 140.63% year-on-year and that of viscose sector increased by 178.95%. However, the vinylon sector decreased by 107.29% and the spandex sector decreased by 41.14%, mainly due to the small increase in product prices in the corresponding period last year

it is worth noting that the price of the varieties that rose less last year also began to rise significantly this year. For example, the price of spandex has risen significantly since November last year. The establishment of an intelligent manufacturing standardization Industry Alliance in the tire industry has risen by about 16% since the beginning of this year. In addition, nylon has risen by about 17% and acrylic has risen by about 15%. Based on the price rise and output growth, we expect the performance of the chemical fiber sector to be further improved in the first quarter of this year. From this year's situation, as China's exports are further improving, the export of textiles and clothing will also increase, which will continue to drive the market demand of upstream chemical fiber products to rise

from the perspective of valuation, according to the forecast data of wind information, the current P/E ratio of the entire chemical fiber sector is 33.56 times, while that of all a shares is 24.3 times, based on the closing price on the 25th and excluding negative values with TTM overall method. The premium of the former to the latter is 2. The melting temperature is 38% higher. By the same method, the average p/E ratio of the chemical fiber sector from the beginning of 2004 to the present is 39.24 times, and the average value of all a shares is 24.51 times. The premium ratio of the former to the latter is 56.97%. This shows that from the average level of historical valuation, the valuation premium of the chemical fiber sector relative to a shares is low

it should be noted that while paying attention to the overall chemical fiber sector, we should also pay attention to the differences in its internal segments. For example, although the price of viscose fiber is also rising, its cost is also rising significantly, so pure viscose companies may not benefit. At the same time, due to the obvious demand growth and limited capacity growth of spandex, its price rise will be beneficial to spandex production enterprises. In addition, while determining the positive trend of exports, we should also pay attention to the short-term adverse effects of possible serious trade frictions

dig deep into the new material sector

new chemical materials are often ignored as a sector due to their strong professionalism and poor comparability. However, many listed companies engaged in this business have been highly sought after in the secondary market recently. From this year's situation, new chemical materials are facing great development potential due to the influence of the government's policies of "structural adjustment" and vigorously promoting the development of emerging industries. It covers a very wide range and has a lot of opportunities. We mainly analyze the polyurethane and silicone plates

the downstream of polyurethane is mainly automobile, home appliance, textile, shoe-making and real estate. This year, the policies to promote the consumption of household appliances and automobiles remain the same, and the real estate will also maintain a rapid growth. With the gradual recovery of the export of shoes and textiles, the demand for polyurethane will further increase. Another potential field of polyurethane is building energy conservation. The energy conservation market in China's construction field is very huge. Most of the old buildings belong to high-energy consumption products and need to be gradually transformed. In addition to the new parts, the scale of the external wall thermal insulation market alone is hundreds of billions. Therefore, with the introduction of relevant policies on building energy efficiency in China, this huge market will be known by all parties and bring opportunities to relevant listed companies. We can pay attention to Yantai Wanhua, etc

the downstream of organosilicon is mainly in the fields of electronic appliances, building materials, etc. In recent years, the upstream of organosilicon in China has developed rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate has increased rapidly, but the development of downstream products needs to be strengthened and improved. With the continuous growth of real estate investment and the continued implementation of the government's policy to encourage the consumption of automobile and home appliances, the market demand for silicone downstream products will increase significantly. We expect that it will maintain rapid growth in the future for a long time, which will provide a broad space for the rapid development of advantageous enterprises; It is recommended to pay attention to Xin'an shares, etc

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

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