It's too early to see the bottom of Shanghai oil a

2022-08-07
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Xinguolian Futures: technical rebound, it is too early for Shanghai oil to reach the bottom

Shanghai oil opened low due to the decline of crude oil, but the intraday technical rebound rose, and the main 810 sessions ended at 4664, up 95 points, with 187672 transactions throughout the day and 2160 positions reduced to 42418

fundamentals, the EIA said that the average daily oil demand of the United States in the first half of this year fell by 800000 barrels compared with the same period last year, the largest decline in 26 years. At the same time, it also revised down its estimate of the daily crude oil output of OPEC countries in the reform and opening up to 49.15 million barrels from the original 49.38 million barrels. It shows that the overall market demand is weakening

on August 13, the price of fuel oil in Shanghai market remained stable. The design of the main engine and auxiliary equipment of the experimental machine drew lessons from the Xianjin technology of Shimadzu, Japan. The market demand was weak, and most people were in a wait-and-see state. The quotation of domestic blending 180CST warehouse is stable at 5000 yuan/ton; The quotation of domestic blending 380cst warehouse is RMB/ton, which is stable; The quotation for domestic 250 Kuti is 5000 yuan/ton. The quoted price of imported high sulfur 180CST warehouse ship is yuan/ton, which is stable; Imported and blended 380cst warehouse ship C60 material: Mom doesn't worry about my cell phone anymore! Offer RMB yuan/ton, stable; The quotation of Russian M100 is stable at 5500 yuan/ton

technically, the crude oil fell below the 120 day moving average, and the semi annual average and the 10 day moving average put pressure on it. If the weakness does not change, it is possible to continue to explore the position. The main force of Shanghai oil 810 opened low and went low, falling below the half year line support, the downward channel was not broken, the RSI index deviated, and continued to be weak. However, it was supported by the relevant data set shown by the automatic calculation of the 0.382 digit experimental machine that had risen since the beginning of February 2007, and the recent decline was too far from the 10 day moving average, rebounding within the day. Pay attention to the support below 4500, but it can not be regarded as the bottom. It is too early for the bulls to enter the market

operation suggestions: the crude oil will continue to adjust downward after breaking the position, and Shanghai oil will continue to be weak, but the domestic fuel spot is strong, which restricts the decline of fuel. The 810 contract relies on the 10 day average as the stop loss position, with the participation of short and short positions. Pay attention to the 4500 support below, and continue to be short after breaking the position

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